Not Just How Long, but How Unequal: Lifespan Inequality by Social Class in Sweden, Cohorts 1841–1920

Marcos Castillo , Lund University
Martin Dribe, Lund University

This study examines long-term trends in lifespan inequality—the variation in ages at death—across social classes in Sweden, focusing on adult cohorts born between 1841 and 1920. While life expectancy reflects the average length of life, lifespan inequality captures how predictable survival is and reveals an additional layer of social disparity. Using Sweden’s exceptional historical data, including the Swedish Death Index (1815–2022) and linked full-count censuses (1880–1910, 1950), the study analyzes lifespan after age 40 to isolate adult mortality patterns. Two complementary measures of inequality are employed: the Theil index, a relative measure unaffected by proportional changes in longevity, and the variance in age at death, an absolute measure of lifespan variation. Results show that men consistently experience higher lifespan inequality than women, though inequality declined over time for both sexes. Among men, higher- and lower-white-collar workers display the greatest inequality, while farmers show the lowest levels throughout. Inequality generally declines across cohorts, particularly among lower white-collar workers, though patterns in the final cohorts are less clear. Among women, differences by social class are smaller and less consistent, with only modest declines in inequality over time. The study’s next steps will decompose total inequality into between- and within-class components and compare patterns using both the Theil index and variance. By providing a long-run perspective on socioeconomic disparities in longevity and lifespan predictability, this paper shows whether progress in survival has been equitably distributed or whether social divides in the certainty of life have persisted.

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 Presented in Session 24. Mortality, Inequality and Population Dynamics in Historical Perspective