Female Early Marriage in South Asia under the Threat of Global Climate Change

Muhammad Khan , Bologna University
Francesca Tosi, University of Bologna
Livia Elisa Ortensi, University of Bologna
Rosella Rettaroli, University of Bologna

Child marriage persists as a critical human rights violation in South Asia, with profound implications for young girls’ life trajectories. Concurrently, the escalating impacts of climate change are increasingly recognized as drivers influencing demographic transitions, including the timing of marriage for girls under 18. The study introduces a research framework to investigate the intricate relationship between prolonged climate extremes and early marriage dynamics across Pakistan, India, and Nepal. Leveraging multilevel discrete-time survival analysis, the study integrates Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data with climatic information derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Preliminary analyses, particularly focusing on South Asia, suggest a discernible association between sustained dry and wet anomalies and an elevated risk of early marriage, especially in rural and climate-vulnerable regions. This work aims to contribute to the understanding of how long-term environmental stressors shape family formation patterns and threaten women's rights and human development in South Asia, offering a comparative perspective on these critical issues.

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 Presented in Session P123. Climate Stress, Gender Inequalities and Family Wellbeing