Trends in Kinlessness (2009-2023) among People Aged 65+ in Five Ethnic Groups in the Netherlands

Thijs van den Broek , Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management
Marco Tosi, University of Padua
Marjolijn Das, Statistics Netherlands

Demographic change, including declining marriage, fertility, and mortality rates, has been transforming family structures across Western societies, possibly increasing the number of older adults without close kin. Using full population administrative data from Statistics Netherlands (2009–2023), this study examines trends in kinlessness,i.e., the absence of both a partner and living children, among people aged 65+ in the Netherlands. We investigate overall patterns and differences across five ethnic groups: native Dutch older persons as well as older people of Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, and Dutch-Caribbean origin. Our analyses reveal substantial modest increases in the absolute number of older adults without partners, but only modest absolute increases in kinless older adults. In relative terms, the likelihood of kinlessness slightly increased for men but declined for women over the study period. We find substantial ethnic variation: kinlessness was considerably lower among Turkish and Moroccan migrants,whereas rates were markedly higher among Dutch-Caribbean older adults, particularly men. Importantly, kinlessness estimates derived from administrative registers exceed previous survey-based estimates, highlighting the underestimation risk associated with excluding institutionalized populations. By documenting temporal and ethnic disparities in kinlessness, our study provides new insights into evolving family support structures in an increasingly diverse ageing society. The findings underscore the need to anticipate growing inequalities in informal care availability and to design inclusive social policies addressing the vulnerabilities of older adults lacking close kin ties.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session 90. Kin Availability and Complex Networks in Ageing Populations