Uncovering the Age Structure of Temperature-Related Mortality in Germany from 2000 to 2023

Carlotta Dietrich , University of Rostock
Roland Rau, University of Rostock

Extreme temperatures are a leading cause of climate-related mortality in Europe. This study analyses mortality due to outdoor temperatures in Germany from 2000 to 2023, focusing on age-specific patterns and regional variation. Using all-cause daily mortality data from the Federal Statistical Office and mean temperature data from the German Weather Service, we applied a two-stage framework with Distributed Lag Non-linear Models and a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. The temperature–mortality relationship follows a J-shaped curve, with both heat and cold increasing mortality risk, and heat having the stronger effect. Vulnerability rises with age, with the steepest associations observed among those aged 85 and older. Excess mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures has declined across all age groups in the last decade, particularly for cold, while heat-related risks persist among the elderly. Regional disparities reveal a north–south gradient in cold-related mortality and stronger heat effects in urbanised regions. These findings highlight the evolving age and spatial patterns of temperature-related mortality in Germany and the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

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 Presented in Session 102. Flash Session Seasonal, Climate- and COVID-19-Related Mortality