Mapping the Mortality Impact of Drug Trafficking in Mexico: Fatal Overdoses and Violence

Jacob Martin , Ined
Felipe Sanchez, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Julia Almeida, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
José Manuel Aburto, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Homicides driven by drug trafficking and cartel activity have led to declines in life expectancy during the 2000s in Mexico, with homicides peaking in 2020 and remaining extremely elevated during the early 2020s. An increase in drug overdose mortality has also been documented in Mexico. However, previous research has focused on violence and overdoses separately and been limited in its spatiotemporal granularity. In this paper we integrate the study of homicide and drug-related mortality at a fine spatial scale by estimating and mapping the mortality risk from both causes for all municipalities in Mexico during the 2000-2023 period. Preliminary findings highlight an intensification of both violence and drug-related mortality in the northwest, and a generalization towards the south in the 2020s.

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 Presented in Session 3. Flash Session Mortality Levels and Trends