How Do Individual Labour Market Trajectories Mediate the Relationship between Economic Context and Family Formation Differently among Individuals with a Migration Background?

Evelien Vlemincx , University of Antwerp
Leen Marynissen, University of Antwerp
Karel Neels, University of Antwerp

Fertility responses to economic context vary by migration background, yet there is little empirical evidence on the pathways underlying this variation. Since theories linking aggregate-level economic conditions and fertility often emphasize the role of individual labour market characteristics, and labour market prospects differ substantially across women of various origin groups in European labour markets, individual-level labour market trajectories may be a key factor in explaining this variation. While limited studies address both aggregate- and individual-level economic factors in relation to entry into parenthood, evidence on subsequent parity progression is lacking, especially by migration background. Therefore, we aim to examine (i) whether individual employment and income characteristics mediate the relationship between aggregate economic conditions, entry into parenthood and subsequent parity progression, and (ii) to what extent this role varies by migration background and generation. Using longitudinal microdata from the Belgian population register and social security register, we estimate pooled discrete-time hazard models for repeated events to model the transition to a first, second, third, or higher-order birth. We distinguish between women of (i) Belgian origin, and 1.5 and second generations of (ii) Northern & Western European, (iii) Southern European, (iv) Eastern European, (v) Turkish, (vi) Maghrebi, and (vii) other non-European origin groups. Preliminary results reveal that fertility responses vary substantially across origin groups, with distinct patterns emerging depending on the economic indicators considered, each highlighting different aspects of economic hardship. These findings suggest that individual employment and income positions may be relevant in explaining differing reactions to economic deterioration.

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 Presented in Session 4. Fertility, Diversity and Migration