Living Next to the “Big Bad Wolf.” Perceived Threat of Military Conflict and its Consequences.

Dorota Holzer-Zelazewska, SGH - Warsaw School of Economics
Irena E. Kotowska , SGH Warsaw Scholl of Economics
Anna Maliszewska, SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Monika Mynarska, Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw & SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Marta Styrc, SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Sylwia Timoszuk, SGH Warsaw Scholl of Economics

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has profoundly reshaped the sense of security across Central and Eastern Europe. Poland, sharing borders with Ukraine and Belarus, remains outside the war zone but lives in its shadow. Signs of Russian interference in Poles’ everyday lives—including disinformation, cyberattacks, and airspace violations—have become increasingly visible, exemplifying the hybrid character of modern warfare and its psychological impact on civilians. In this context, understanding how proximity to armed conflict shapes perceptions of risk and well-being is more urgent than ever. Drawing on the Global Uncertainty and Institutional Trust module of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), this study examines worries about military conflict in relation to other global threats, such as economic crises or climate change. It addresses three questions: (1) Who is most afraid of the war? (2) How are such fears linked to a broader sense of uncertainty and life satisfaction? and (3) Do they affect intentions to move—within or beyond Poland? The analyses explore socio-demographic and spatial patterns of fear, considering regional variation (NUTS-3) and distance from national borders. In September 2025, just a week before the start of GGS data collection in Poland, Russian drones violated Polish airspace, heightening public anxiety about national security. Fieldwork is expected to conclude in April 2026, providing data on 8,000-10,000 respondents aged 18-59. It will be one of the first large-scale, post-2022 dataset, showing how proximity to war affects people’s sense of safety, well-being, and everyday decisions.

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 Presented in Session P34. Environment, Fertility and Mobility