From Intentions to Births: Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions across Five Decades in Norway

Lars Dommermuth , Statistics Norway
Torkild Hovde Lyngstad, University of Oslo
Kenneth Wiik, Statistics Norway

Background. A recent comparative analysis of five nationally representative surveys of Norwegian women aged 18–44 (1977, 1988, 2003, 2007, 2020) showed that short-term (3–4 years) and general fertility intentions were lowest in 2020, with the decline from 2007 to 2020 appearing in all sociodemographic groups and emerging earliest among young, childless, studying, and unpartnered women. These patterns raise a key question: are women nowadays less likely to realize positive short-term intentions? Objective. We ask whether the realization of positive short-term fertility intentions has changed over time; whether Norway’s post-2010 fertility downturn is partly linked to lower realization; and whether realization varies across subgroups aligned with shifting partnership, education, and employment trajectories. Data & methods. We harmonize intention measures across the five surveys and follow women for 3.5 years after interview. Follow-up comes from population registers for the 1977, 1988, 2003, and 2007 surveys, and from a second wave of the 2020 GGS-II (2024, response rate >70%). We define realization as at least one live birth within 42 months and estimate discrete-time event-history models, controlling for survey period as well as age, parity/parenthood, union status, education, and activity status, adjusting for survey design differences. Expected contribution. Our data offers a rare opportunity to study realization over nearly fifty years with high response rates and minimal attrition through registers follow-ups. Beyond charting trends, we speak to the “opportunity structure of childbearing”—how changing partnerships and family policies have shaped the conversion of intentions into births.

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 Presented in Session 116. Life-Course Determinants of Fertility Intentions and Realization