Fertility and lifetime crises in Indonesia: 50 years of weather-related disasters

Tiziana Leone , LSE
Maria Rita Testa, Luiss

Natural disasters impose profound shocks on women’s life-cycle outcomes, with fertility among the most affected dimensions. Fertility may rise through mortality replacement mechanisms or decline due to stress, increased partner mortality, higher risks of miscarriage, and reduced fecundity linked to nutritional deficiencies following disruptions in food supply. Empirical evidence to date remains inconclusive, with studies reporting mixed or contradictory findings. This paper systematically analyses the long-term relationship between disaster exposure and fertility in Indonesia over the past five decades. Using one round of the World Fertility Survey (1976) and eight rounds of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys (1987–2017), we examine the effects of high-intensity climatic disasters—including floods, cyclones, and typhoons—on completed fertility among women aged 40–49. Disaster exposure, defined as events affecting over one million people, is measured by linking DHS data to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, at the provincial level to capture all events experienced by women during their reproductive years. We apply multilevel modelling techniques to account for the hierarchical structure of individuals within provinces and to assess contextual effects while controlling for socio-economic factors such as education, residence, wealth, and marital status. The results reveal a generally negative association between disaster exposure and completed fertility, with notable variations in intensity across survey years and provinces. Fertility levels remain lower among more educated and urban women. Situated within broader research on crises and demographic behaviour, this study offers a historical account of how recurrent environmental shocks shape childbearing outcomes in Indonesia.

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 Presented in Session P123. Climate Stress, Gender Inequalities and Family Wellbeing