Can Migration Mitigate Labour Force Shrinking? Local and Gender Divides in Italian contexts

Rossella Bozzon , University of Bologna
Francesca Bitonti
Daniela Ghio, University of Catania
Maurizio Avola, Università di Catania

Although the accelerated ageing of labour force is commonly depicted across European countries, differences in local population dynamics remain often undetectable, mainly due to data limitations at fine geographical scales. The analysis investigates at what extent cohort turnover and migration flows influence the labour force dynamics at sub-national level. Italy has been selected as an ideal case study for two main reasons. First, Italy is recognized as an extreme example of lowest-low fertility country; second, structural internal divides characterize Italian territories. At provincial level, the annual active population change is decomposed into cohort turnover and both internal and international migration effects, over the period 2011-2020, applying the Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) classification to assess territorial heterogeneities. Although cohort turnover effects are the main structural component of labour renewal at provincial levels, results reveal an important role of internal mobility in driving the changes of local labour forces. International migration plays a smaller but persistently gendered role: female migrants consistently exhibit higher turnover shares. The analysis represents a first attempt to assess the distinctive role played by internal (and international migration) in mitigating the impact of population ageing on the local labour force. By mapping the complexity and heterogeneity of labour force dynamics, the analysis contributes to assess diversities in labour market participation by gender and underscore how the increase of female labour force participation is becoming crucial to alleviate the effects of ageing.

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 Presented in Session 12. Migration, Human Capital and Labour Markets