Reversal of the Sex Inequality in Fertility

Henrik-Alexander Schubert , Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Thomas Spoorenberg, United Nations Population Division
Vegard Skirbekk, University of Oslo and Norwegian Institute of Public Health

Population structures show a growing male surplus around the globe as a consequence of declining mortality, narrowing sex differences in mortality, and in some places sex selective abortions. Population structures are important determinants of marriage markets and childbearing. In this study, we estimate the past, current and future difference between the male and female total fertility rates around the world using an indirect demographic approach on data from the UN World Population Prospects. Our results indicate a crossover from historically higher male fertility to increasingly higher female fertility, which occurs globally in 2024. This shift is not toward parity, but rather reflects a growing disparity driven by the increasing male surplus in populations, which exerts downward pressure on male fertility rates relative to those of females. The difference is expected to grow to up to 20% in countries like China and India, where sex selective abortion has caused sex imbalances in population structures. Overall, we highlight the growing sex inequalities in reproduction and call for more research on sex differences in fertility.

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 Presented in Session 113. Patterns and Components of Fertility Change