Context matters: Local Determinants of International Emigration Patterns from Colombia

Alessandra Carioli, European Commission
Joaquín Recaño , Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

This paper examines the factors influencing international emigration flows from Colombia, with a specific focus on gender differentials. We analyse female and male migrants born in Colombia and aged 20 to 49 years who left the country between 2017 and 2019. Data aggregated at the municipal level (1122) from the 2018 Colombian Census include socio-economic indicators, migration history, poverty, forced displacement, and armed violence. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model is applied to capture spatial non-stationarity in migration determinants, offering a nuanced understanding of migratory behaviours and their territorial patterns. Results reveal that both male and female emigration is shaped by heterogeneous local contexts, with the models explaining over 80% of spatial variability (AdjR² 0.82 for men and 0.83 for women). For men, international migration is mainly associated with structural vulnerability, violence, and pre-existing migration networks. Poverty and rural isolation tend to constrain mobility, while homicide rates and family networks—proxied by elderly women with children abroad—act as strong positive predictors. For women, the determinants are more polarized. Emigration is driven by both educational selectivity and family linkages abroad. The share of women with tertiary education increases the likelihood of migration, while poverty and formal employment reduce it. Rurality and kinship ties show wide spatial variation, reflecting the coexistence of opportunity-driven and network-based migration regimes. This research provides an original and unprecedented contribution to understanding the local determinants of international emigration.

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 Presented in Session 92. Flash Session International Migration