Evolving Patterns of Ethnic Diversity and Segregation in Belgium: A Dynamic Matrix and Trajectory Approach to Spatial (In)equality

Feriha Nazda Güngördü-Saygi , Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Lena Imeraj, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Shabnam Khezri, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Tuba Bircan, Vrije Universiteit Brussel

This paper examines how ethnic diversity (ED) and ethnic residential segregation (ERS) evolve together in Belgium by addressing two key limitations in existing research: first, long-standing assumption that ED and ERS operate as conceptual opposites, despite growing evidence that they frequently coexist in multi-scalar and overlapping forms; and second, the reliance on static indices that classify neighbourhoods through fixed thresholds, thereby oversimplifying complex spatial structures and transformations. Building on these challenges, the study analyses Belgian neighbourhoods from 2000 to 2020 to trace how they shift within the diversity–segregation nexus—whether they remain stable, move toward more balanced diversity, or develop new forms of segregation—and assesses how these trajectories relate to socio-economic conditions. It introduces a Dynamic Matrix Model that classifies neighbourhoods according to their relative positions on diversity and segregation axes. Using population register data from Statistics Belgium, ED and ERS are measured via the Fractionalization Index (FI) and Location Quotients (LQ). Correlation tests, hierarchical clustering, and the Dynamic Matrix Model identify diversity–segregation configurations, while sequence analysis and multinomial logistic regression assess temporal trajectories and their socio-economic correlates. Preliminary findings show a marked decoupling of diversity and segregation over time, alongside the persistence of four neighbourhood types: homogeneous, diverse-transitional, highly segregated, and diverse-but-segregated. Sequence analysis reveals stable, progressive, fluctuating, and regressive trajectories, indicating that neighbourhood change is multi-directional and path-dependent, shaped by local demographic and structural dynamics. Socio-economic improvements are associated with more balanced diversification, while segregation persists in disadvantaged areas.

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 Presented in Session 64. Flash Session Residential Context and Spatial Segregation in Migrant Populations