Fertility Intentions among Migrants in Italy: Exploring Gendered Patterns across Origins

Anna Paterno
Giuseppe Gabrielli, University of Naples Federico II
Thaís García-Pereiro, University of Bari Aldo Moro
Salvatore Strozza, University of Naples Federico II

This study investigates short-term fertility intentions among partnered migrants aged 18–45 in Italy, contributing to the expanding literature on migrant reproductive decision-making. While previous research has largely focused on actual fertility behaviors to test hypotheses such as adaptation, selection, disruption, and socialization, recent approaches have extended these frameworks to examine fertility desires and intentions. Using data from the FOLCSI 2024 survey—an innovative dataset covering foreign-origin individuals in Lombardy, Lazio, Campania, and Apulia—this paper analyzes the likelihood of declaring strong negative fertility intentions within a three-year timeframe. Binary logistic regression models are employed to explore gendered differences and the influence of origin, age at arrival, parity, education, employment, health, couple type, and legal status. The findings reveal that migrant women are significantly more likely than men to express strong negative fertility intentions, particularly as parity increases. Country of birth also plays a crucial role, with notable gender differences across origins. Age at arrival further shapes intentions, suggesting that socialization and adaptation processes operate differently by gender. Women appear to adapt more rapidly to Italy’s low-fertility context, potentially due to greater caregiving burdens and structural constraints. This study fills two key gaps in the literature: it offers a direct gender comparison and examines how fertility intentions vary across origins and life-course factors. The results provide nuanced insights into reproductive norms among migrants in Italy, informing both demographic theory and policy aimed at supporting migrant families in low-fertility settings.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility