Sociodemographic patterns in internal, international, and onwards migration in Swedish municipalities.

Óskar Jóhannsson , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics
Martin Kolk, Stockholm University

Sweden has received among the highest levels of refugee migration in Europe during the early 21st century. While the consequences of international migration have received considerable attention, its implications for internal migration flows remain poorly understood. Using longitudinal registry data from 2003-2019, we track individual migration trajectories of international migrants four years after initial arrival, examining how refugee policy has concentrated migration into sparsely populated areas and analysing subsequent onwards migration patterns by origin region and destination municipality. Migration policy concentrates migrants in areas with available housing, which are also regions with weak labor markets and few ethnic communities. As a consequence, there is substantial outmigration from these areas, and we observe a negative relationship emerge between internal and international migration. We provide evidence showing that refugee migration is not only an important determinant of international migration in Sweden, but is also emerging as a primary determinant of net internal migration flows. We find that initial placement is heavily policy-driven, concentrating migrants in rural and post-industrial municipalities. However, onwards migration partially reverses these patterns within four years. Internal migration patterns differ substantially by origin region: migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East show higher onwards migration rates than those from Nordic and EU countries. At the municipal and regional levels, suburban areas and certain mid-sized cities emerge as net beneficiaries of these complex migration dynamics, while the most remote rural areas struggle to retain initially placed refugees.

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 Presented in Session 100. Heterogeneity of Internal Migration Patterns