Estimating Excess Mortality During Heatwaves in Mexico: A Subnational Analysis by Age, Sex, and Geography

Alejandra Parra , European Doctoral School of Demography (EDSD) at INED
Risto Conte Keivabu, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
José Manuel Aburto, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Background: Climate shocks are increasing in frequency and magnitude, and it is critical to understand their impact on population health. Demographic methods can provide insight into the burden of shocks on subgroups and the dynamics with existing inequalities within and across populations. Methods: Using publicly available data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the National Meteorological Services National Water Commission (CONAGUA) and the National Council on Population (CONAPO), we train a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) using 3.2 million death records from 2015-2019 to project mortality in 2023 using a negative binomial distribution. We estimate excess mortality using the difference between observed and projected age and sex specific deaths per month and examine the geographic and seasonal patterns of this excess. Results: Our preliminary results estimate 4,339 excess deaths during one of the hottest months nationally. We find large differences in excess by state, no consistent differences in excess mortality by sex, positive excess in only three age groups (5-29:747, 30-64: 3,609, 65-74: 841) and net negative excess in highest risk older groups (75-84: -1,138, 85+: -2,263) and the youngest (<1: -673, 1-4: 46). Next steps: We discuss mortality displacement, age-specific behaviors leading to differential exposure, Mexico’s underlying disease burden, and seasonal mortality patterns. This initial analysis established variation of excess across Mexican states, which we will refine using finer spatial and temporal resolution (municipality-week level) and continue to assess how geography shapes variation in excess and characterise the subgroups most vulnerable to extreme heat.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session P61. Flash Session Temperature Extremes, Mortality and Reproductive Health