The Effect of Paternity Leave Quotas on Childbearing Decisions: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Norway

Embla Vesterdal , INED

This paper explores whether changes in paternity leave quotas and, consequently, changes in unpaid parental leave uptake by mothers can affect childbearing decisions. Using rich administrative data, I study the effects of the 2014 and 2018 Norwegian paternity leave reforms, which changed the duration of parental leave quotas designated to parents. I employ a regression discontinuity design to identify the impact of the reforms. I find clear indications of less unpaid leave uptake by mothers after the 2014 reform, which decreased the paternity leave quota. The reform does not have an overall effect on childbearing decisions, but I find that women over 30 and married women wait longer before having another child. After the 2018 reform, which increased the paternity leave quota, I find no significant effect on unpaid leave uptake, the probability of having another child, or how long it takes a couple to have another child.

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 Presented in Session 117. Flash Session Families, Policies and Demographic Change