Fertility Expectations under Conditions of War and Flight: Ukrainian Refugee Women in Germany

Kerstin Ruckdeschel , Federal Institute for Population Research
Brienna Perelli-Harris, University of Southampton
Nadja Milewski, Federal Institute for Population Research
Martin Bujard, Federal Institute for Population Research

This study examines fertility expectations among Ukrainian refugee women in Germany during the first two years of displacement following the Russian invasion in 2022. We investigate how experiences of uncertainty, family disruption, and the prospect of long-term residence in Germany shape reproductive outlooks under forced migration. Drawing on data from the Ukrainian Refugees in Germany Study, we focus on fertility expectations—understood as the realistically anticipated total number of children. Our analyses highlight the role of uncertainty, operationalized through “don’t know” responses, in shaping expectations. In particular, we examine how expectations vary by partnership status, partner location, and future settlement plans. Preliminary results show that childless women with a partner living in Germany and a plan to stay long term are more likely to expect having at least one child. In contrast, women who are unpartnered or whose partners remain abroad are significantly more likely to express uncertainty about their reproductive future. These findings suggest that migration-related disruptions, especially the separation from partners and unclear future prospects, constrain reproductive planning in the context of forced migration. We argue that ideational indicators such as perceived uncertainty must be more fully integrated into migrant fertility research. Recognizing the diversity of reproductive responses under conditions of displacement contributes to a more nuanced understanding of long-term demographic adaptation among refugee populations.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility