Molding the Rate of Aging

Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, University of Southern Denmark
Paola Vazquez-Castillo , Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics- University of Southern Denmark
Silvio Patricio, CPop - Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics
Annette Baudisch, Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics (CPop)

One of the most widely accepted regularities in mortality analysis is that the risk of dying increases at a constant rate from age 40 onward. This regularity was formalized by the Gompertz model 200 years ago. However, recent empirical evidence suggests that, at the population level, the rate of aging, i.e. the relative change in mortality rate over age, is not constant and has undergone significant changes in recent years. We find that the rate of aging follows a piecewise pattern: it remains relatively stable up to age 65, then increases up to age 85, and subsequently decreases. To support these empirical findings, we propose a theoretical framework to explain this emerging mortality age structure. Our model demonstrates that this new rate of aging pattern can be explained by faster mortality reductions around ages 70–80 than at younger and older ages. This suggests that the rate of aging can be molded by varying progress in reducing mortality across different age groups.

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 Presented in Session 27. Mortality and Longevity