Fathers' Parental Leave Uptake and Continued Childbearing in Estonia

Sanan Abdullayev , Tallinn University, Estonian Institute for Population Studies
Allan Puur, Tallinn University

This study investigates the relationship between fathers’ uptake of parental leave and progression to subsequent childbearing—specifically second and third births—in Estonia. Leveraging longitudinal register data on couples with a first or second child born between 2003 and 2018, the study employs a mixture cure model to disentangle tempo effects (timing of birth) from quantum effects (likelihood of another child), advancing beyond conventional survival analyses. A novel contribution is the linkage of register data with survey information on fathers’ family orientation and gender role attitudes, combined with the use of birth interval between previous births as a proxy for unobserved family orientation—addressing selection issues discussed in prior literature. Results indicate that fathers’ parental leave use is associated with faster transitions to subsequent births. Statistically significant positive quantum effects are found for progression to the third child but not the second. Notably, controlling for family orientation using the proxy did not weaken associations for third births, suggesting effects extend beyond selection for more family-oriented fathers. The study also finds that positive quantum effects for third births are driven by fathers with no labour income during leave, while no differences emerge between non-users and fathers who worked while on leave. For timing effects, accelerated transitions are observed among fathers who took leave but also worked to some extent, while not among those with no income during leave; this may highlight the value of balanced work-family life for fathers, suggesting that maintaining some labour market attachment could facilitate faster progression to the next birth.

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 Presented in Session 67. Fertility and Gender Roles