Estimating levels and trends in adult mortality rates in countries with high HIV prevalence from 1950 to 2023

Fengqing Chao, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
Qiqi Qiang
Yichang Shi , Chinese University of Hongkong, Shenzhen
Patrick Gerland, UN
Ivan Williams, UN
Lubov Zeifman, UN

Accurate monitoring of adult mortality in countries with a high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence is essential for disease measurement and population estimation. However, this is challenging because most countries experiencing high HIV prevalence lack good civil vital registration systems. The existing sets of mortality estimates are based on standard demographic techniques and partially deterministic approaches, especially in countries with high HIV prevalence. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) to estimate the levels and trends in sex-specific adult mortality 45q15 from 1950 to 2023. The BHM make use of extensive databases and allow information sharing across country-periods. The effect of HIV prevalence on adult mortality was specifically modelled to capture the nonlinear pattern.

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 Presented in Session 3. Flash Session Mortality Levels and Trends