Why Do Most Who Consider Emigrating Never Do So?: How Subjective Dimensions of Migrant Selectivity in Mental Health, Political Identity, and Traumatic Experiences of Historical Events Raise the Hazard and Speed of Emigration

Jacob Thomas , Corvinus University of Budapest

Why do only a minority of people discontent with political changes who say they want to emigrate actually do so?. I assess migrant selectivity using Cox Proportional Hazard, logistic regression models, and linear duration models, with data I collected from 3,784 Hong Kong residents who considered emigrating and have not emigrated to other locations, as well as data from Hong Kong emigrants before they emigrated. A statistically significantly higher proportion of emigrants (non-emigrants) cited political (economic) reasons as being the main factor triggering them to leave than non-emigrants (emigrants). Participants who emigrated had a higher risk of emigrating and emigrated more quickly if they were married, female, college-educated, ideologically pan-democrat (relative to ideologically pro-establishment/neutral, had higher self-rated physical health, had lower self-rated mental health, had a strong sense of belonging, and were very concerned about the current political situation in Hong Kong. Ideologically localist or self-determinist participants (relative to pro-establishment participants) had higher odds of thinking about emigrating, but not actually emigrating. I show that those who emigrated were more or less likely than those who did not to mention five historical events as the three that most traumatized/triggered them to think about emigrating, whereas those who did not emigrate were significantly more likely to mention three other specific events. This paper advances previous migrant selectivity research by demonstrating how the risk of emigration and the speed of emigration are associated not only with objective traits but also with subjective traits—self-rated mental health, sense of belonging, concern about politics, political identity/ideology, and selective traumatic memory of historic events.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session 87. International Migration Intentions