Missing Marriages: Changes in Marriage Formation Trends in Europe after 2020

Zuzana Zilincikova , Population Research Centre, University of Groningen

Marriage rates have shown a long-term decline across most European countries, though in many cases they stabilised during the past two decades. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 disrupted this relative stability, leading to an abrupt fall in marriages. While some of these marriages were likely postponed and later realised, the pandemic’s impact might have extended beyond temporary disruptions, reshaping the trajectory of marriage formation across Europe. This study examines the pandemic as a disruptive event interrupting marriage formation patterns. Using annual data on crude marriage rates from 1990–2023 (Eurostat), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were estimated to forecast counterfactual marriage rates in the absence of the pandemic. The observed rates were then compared to the predicted values for 2020–2023 to quantify the extent of missing marriages. Preliminary results from Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and Italy indicate declines in marriage rates in 2020, with notable cross-country variation in both the extent of the decline and the subsequent recovery. Despite partial rebounds, no country fully offset the initial deficit relative to expected levels. These results suggest that the pandemic functioned as a relationship stressor, delaying or deterring marriage formation. Future work will extend this analysis to more European countries and investigate how marriage shortfalls relate to restrictions, mortality, and macroeconomic conditions.

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 Presented in Session P7. Education, Labor Market, and Economic Issues