Parenthood in Transition: Longitudinal Insights into the One-Child Family

Edith Gray , Australian National University
Ann Evans, Australian National University
Anna Reimondos, Australian National University

Having only one child has become an increasingly common family type in many countries, including in Australia, where the share of women aged 45-49 with one child doubled from 7.9% in 1981 to 15.1% in 2021. While this trend is typically attributed to rising age at first birth, less is known about the individual demographic and behavioural processes leading to stopping at parity one. In particular, little is known about whether stopping at parity one is determined by factors before the first birth, during pregnancy, or after the transition to parenthood. Using longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (2001–2023), this study follows women from pre-pregnancy through parenthood to identify what differentiates those who stop at one child from those who have subsequent births. We consider three stages of potential influence: (1) pre-pregnancy characteristics including fertility desires; (2) pregnancy experiences including physical and mental health; and (3) post-birth experiences including labour-force participation, subjective difficulty of parenting, and characteristics of the child such as sex and its own health. Event-history models are used to estimate the likelihood of a second birth. Although age at first birth and union stability exert the strongest structural constraints on second births, parents’ experiences during pregnancy and early parenting also play an independent role in shaping the likelihood of stopping at one child. In particular physical and mental health during pregnancy, as well as subjective difficulty of parenting during the first two years following the first birth.

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 Presented in Session 107. Childlessness and Late Parenthood