Lessons from a Laggard? Study of CVD Incidence and Survival Inequalities in Finland, 2000-2020, Based on Novel Bivariate Health-Death Distributions

Chiara Micheletti , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Alyson van Raalte, MPIDR
Shubhankar Sharma, University of Helsinki
Pekka Martikainen, University of Helsinki

Life expectancy improvements have slowed in many high-income countries since 2010, largely due to stagnating cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Yet, the reasons behind this slowdown remain unclear. Finland provides a compelling case: despite an historically high CVD burden, overall declines in mortality have continued. Using detailed Finnish register data from 2000 onward, we apply novel age-health curves estimating the average number of years lived CVD-free at each age at death. We compare the curves across different domains, such as sex, educational attainment and time. Results show persistent educational disparities: individuals with tertiary education consistently experience more CVD-free years than those with basic education. However, changes over time are modest, suggesting that gains in longevity have not been matched by equivalent improvements in cardiovascular health. Our findings highlight continued progress in mortality reduction, but also points towards a stagnation in CVD-free survival, underscoring the need for renewed prevention efforts.

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 Presented in Session 27. Mortality and Longevity