The Impact of Economic and Employment Instability on Fertility: Sub-Population Heterogeneities in Sweden

Mimmi Aurora Lounela , Stockholm University

Sweden has seen rapid immigration over the past two decades, coinciding with a more flexible labour market, leading to increased worker uncertainty. Migrant populations are particularly affected, often overrepresented in precarious non-standard employment. Crucially, the reason for migration and associated permit type profoundly shapes migrants' experience of employment instability; for some, job loss can threaten residency, creating exacerbated uncertainty that could either constrain or shift life-course decisions. Despite this unique interplay, how employment instability specifically impacts migrant fertility remains a notable research gap. This study investigates whether employment instability differentially affects the fertility of Swedish-born individuals and migrants. Using event-history analysis on Swedish total population register data (2000-2022), the study will examine the effect of diverse employment trajectories on fertility among the Swedish-born and various migrant groups, categorised by origin, reason for migration, and duration of stay. Gender pattern differences are also explored. Drawing on the Narrative framework, employment and income instability generally hinder future planning, leading to negative short-term fertility effects. However, existing evidence suggests migrant fertility may respond less negatively to labour market uncertainties. For migrants, especially those facing profound disruption or belonging to groups with systemically limited labour market opportunities due to permit type, heightened uncertainties can lead to complex fertility responses. These could range from more pronounced postponement due to extreme precarity, to a de-coupling of career stability from fertility, or even foster an 'alternative career' in family. Thus, varying effects of employment instability are expected for migrants and natives, shaped by origin, permit, and gender.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility