Subnational Projection of Kin Size, Structure, and Dependency in India subnational Projection of Kin Size, Structure, and Dependency in India

Saroja Adhikari , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Samir KC, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Kinship remains a foundation of social and economic life in India, where kin networks serve as a substitute for a limited welfare system. Yet, regional variation in kinship patterns remains largely unexplored. This study presents the first subnational projections of kin size, structure, and dependency in India from 1980 to 2100, using fertility and mortality estimates for 34 subnational units (17 states by rural-urban residence) and a two-sex, time-variant kinship model. Despite substantial data challenges at the subnational level, we constructed a continuous series of age-specific fertility and mortality rates and projected future kinship size and structure for different states and regions. Preliminary results show that the average number of living grandparents for children aged 0-4 increased from 3.3 in 1980 to 3.6 in 2020 and is expected to reach 3.8 by 2100. Urban children consistently have about 5-10% more living grandparents than their rural counterparts. Regional convergence is observed, with northern and eastern states catching up with southern states by the end of the century. Analyses of additional kin types, such as parents, siblings, aunts, uncles, cousins, nephews/nieces, and grandchildren, are underway and will offer deeper insights into the kin composition and kin dependency across India. This study lays the foundation for future analyses of care demand and supply between kin, the relationship between extended kin and coresident households, the experience of kin loss and its health consequences, and patterns of intergenerational exchange, and guides regionally responsive welfare policies to complement kin-based support in an aging India.

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 Presented in Session 8. Kinship Networks over the Life Course