It Wasn’t Expected: Consequences of Unplanned Births for Couple and Employment Trajectories

Anna Barbuscia , University of the Basque Country
Ariane Pailhé, INED - National Institute for Demographic Studies
Anne Solaz, INED

Despite a decrease over the last decades, rates of unplanned births (either unwanted or mistimed) remain high, even in Western contexts of high contraception coverage and accessible abortion services. A rich literature has explored the negative consequences of unplanned births for children and parents’ wellbeing. Much less is known about the subsequent demographic and socioeconomic trajectories. This paper analyses the consequences of unplanned births for conjugal and employment trajectories in France. We use nine waves of the large epidemiologic Constances Cohort study on the subset of women who reported the arrival of a child (N = 3,011 women, with 14,533 observations), matched with administrative employment data. Unplanned births (N=736) are identified by the comparison between declared fertility intentions with their subsequent realization, avoiding bias linked to ex-post rationalization bias. We use event study model with control groups of mothers having a planned birth, or age-comparable childless women. We also consider heterogeneity in the response to unplanned birth, by parity and educational level. The results show that, compared to mothers having a planned birth, women who have an unplanned birth are less likely to be in a partnership before giving birth and are more likely to experience union dissolution after. They are less likely to be employed before and have a bigger drop in employment rate (and income for those working) one year after the birth. While they recover a similar employment rate two or three years after the birth, their income level remains lower.

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 Presented in Session 55. Parenthood, Work and Inequality across the Life Course