Changes in Homeownership and in the Entry into Parenthood in the Nordic Countries

Jessica Nisén , University of Turku
Lars Dommermuth, Statistics Norway
Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk, Stockholm University
Peter Fallesen, Rockwool Foundation

Fertility levels have fallen unexpectedly in all Nordic countries since 2010, reaching record lows in 2022 and 2023. While previous evidence points to a general trend, some differences across socioeconomic groups are apparent. The reasons for these declines remain unclear, except that they are due to fewer people entering parenthood. The aim of this study is to investigate whether housing plays a role in explaining these changes among young adults. We hypothesise that changes in housing tenure (i.e. home ownership), associated with the relative income position of young adults weakening and house prices increasing, may have contributed to the decline in fertility. Using harmonised Nordic individual-level register data from 2005 to 2019, our aim is to assess whether the decline in first births was due to a fall in homeownership, a change in fertility behaviour among housing tenure groups, or a combination of the two. Discrete-time event history models and multivariate decomposition of the first birth rate are applied. Our preliminary results show that, in the Nordic context, homeownership among young adults generally declined in the 2010s, with Sweden being a partial exception. Preliminary results for Finland and Sweden show that the first birth rate declined regardless of tenure status during the 2010s. In relative terms, the decline was more pronounced among women who rent than among women who live in owner-occupied dwellings. The decline was modestly attributable to declining homeownership in Finland only. Delayed entry into homeownership may have been a partial driver of Finland’s strong fertility decline.

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 Presented in Session 17. Fertility and Housing