Beyond the Desk: What's Driving the Change in Fertility Schedules for Brazilian Public Servants?

Gretta Ferreira, University of Campinas
Everton Lima , Unicamp

Brazil has undergone a rapid demographic transition, with the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declining dramatically from 5.8 in 1970 to a below-replacement level of 1.9 by 2010. This shift is strongly correlated with women's rising educational attainment and labor market participation. Within this context, female public-sector employees represent a critical subgroup characterized by high educational attainment, stable employment, and comprehensive social rights. While these factors might seem to facilitate work-family balance, they may also contribute to the postponement of motherhood. Utilizing microdata from the 2000 and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses, this study analyzes fertility among female public servants aged 15–49 through combined period and cohort fertility analyses. Furthermore, Structural Equation Models (SEMs) were estimated across 137 small regions to quantify the direct and indirect impacts of education and the timing of starting reproduction on overall fertility outcomes. The results confirm that fertility among public servants is consistently low and increasingly postponed. This lower and later fertility is intrinsically linked to educational investments and the postponement of motherhood. The findings suggest that the fertility patterns observed reflect not only years of schooling but also the time invested in achieving an occupational status in public service. The persistence of low fertility even among women with strong institutional guarantees underscores that job stability alone fails to compensate for the high opportunity costs of motherhood. Consequently, education and professional career trajectories are decisive determinants of reproductive behavior in Brazil’s low-fertility environment.

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 Presented in Session P1. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 1