Beyond Numbers: Uncertainty and Non-Numeric Fertility Preferences among Migrants in Italy

Livia Elisa Ortensi , University of Bologna
Eleonora Mussino, Umeå University
Mimmi Aurora Lounela, Stockholm University
Chiara Ludovica Comolli, University of Bologna

A considerable share of women in high-fertility contexts provide non-numeric responses—such as “don’t know” or “up to God”—when asked about fertility preferences. Traditionally seen as signs of fatalism and lack of agency, such answers have recently been reinterpreted as rational strategies for coping with uncertainty. Building on this conceptual shift, this study explores non-numeric fertility preferences among migrants from high-fertility countries now residing in Europe—an area where uncertainty profoundly shapes life trajectories yet remains understudied in relation to fertility intentions. Using data from the 2019 wave of the Regional Observatory for Integration and Multi-ethnicity (ORIM), we analyse short-term fertility intentions (within three years) among men and women with a migrant background in Lombardy, Italy. The analysis examines how economic, union, and legal status uncertainty—net of education and religion—affect non-numeric fertility responses. Results show that these answers reflect distinct rationalities rather than the absence of preference. Legal uncertainty emerges as the most salient determinant, underscoring migrants’ specific vulnerabilities and the reproductive relevance of secure residence status. The findings also highlight gendered and religious dimensions: men are more likely to express uncertainty-related responses, while “up to God” answers are concentrated among Muslim respondents. These insights advance our understanding of how migration-specific uncertainties shape reproductive decision-making, moving beyond traditional frameworks that focus primarily on economic factors or cultural assimilation. The findings have important implications for both migration and fertility research, suggesting the need for more layered approaches to understanding reproductive decision-making in contexts of heightened uncertainty.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility