Wildfires, Mobility, and Stratified Impacts in Spain

Matt Mason , University of Liverpool
Sophia Noel, Sciences Po
Lovisa Rosenquist Ohlsson, Lund University
Zarmeen Salim, Pennsylvania State University
Risto Conte Keivabu, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Daniela Perrotta, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Ebru Sanlitürk, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Wildfires pose hazards for humans through fire proximity and smoke exposure, and are expected to pose further risks due to climate change. Existing literature has not extensively inquired how wildfires affect short-term mobility as an adaptive response to these events. We use digital trace mobility data from the Spanish Ministry of Transportation, and examine how proximity and air pollution due to wildfires affect residential displacement in mainland Spain from 2022 to 2024. Additionally, we inquire on the stratified impact of wildfires on mobility by district level income, leveraging administrative data provided by the Spanish Statistical Institute. Results show mandatory evacuations drive displacement regardless of income, while wealthier districts exhibit higher self-initiated displacement when fires are distant or when exposed to smoke. Joint exposures reveal stay-at-home orders reduce displacement despite smoke risks. Findings highlight the central role of policy in structuring adaptive mobility and socioeconomic disparities in wildfire response.

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 Presented in Session P13. Climate Shocks, Migration and Mobility