Formal and Informal Support in Shaping Refugees’ Mobility Intentions

Roberto Impicciatore , Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna
Livia Elisa Ortensi, University of Bologna
Francesca Tosi, University of Bologna
Antonina Zhelenkova, University of Bologna

Despite a substantial body of research on the role of welfare support in shaping mobility decisions, evidence on its impact on onward migration decisions of refugees remains limited. Moreover, most analyses rely on aggregate indicators of welfare generosity rather than individual-level data, failing to account for actual access to welfare benefits. Additionally, little is known about the financial dimension of support provided by social networks and nongovernmental organisations as potential factors influencing refugees’ mobility intentions. To address these gaps, this study draws on a survey data collected in nine Italian regions on refugees, holders of subsidiary or temporary protection and asylum seekers to analyse the impact of different types of formal and informal financial support on their migration intentions. The results show that formal financial support has no impact on the likelihood of leaving Italy but reduces the uncertainty about future mobility plans. In contrast, financial support received from Italian and foreign friends increases the intention to move to a third country. Furthermore, the study shows that legal status and living conditions (employment status, living arrangements, dwelling conditions, knowledge of Italian) mediate the impact of both formal and informal support, although the main results remain confirmed also including these variables. Overall, the study does not support the welfare magnet hypothesis among refugees in Italy, reinforcing evidence that social networks, rather than state support, play a central role in shaping mobility decisions of vulnerable immigrants.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility