Estimate of Life Expectancy Reduction in China following the End of the Zero-Covid Policy

Kai Feng , Max Planck institute for Demographic Research

After three years of strict control to contain the spread of COVID-19, China relaxed and ultimately ended the zero-COVID policy on December 7th 2022. While anecdotal reports and indirect estimates indicate increased mortality, no direct, nationally representative data have been available. This study uses nationally representative mortality estimates from the newly released National Sample Survey on Population Changes to assess life loss and the decline in life expectancy following the policy change. The survey respondents were asked to report any household death in the past year (November 1, 2022–October 31, 2023). This period precisely captures the full year following the end of the zero-COVID policy. The National Bureau of Statistics aggregated and weighted population and death counts at the national level and published them in the 2024 China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook. Age-specific mortality data from the 2023 and 2024 surveys were used to construct period life tables. Arriaga’s decomposition was applied to assess age-group contributions to changes in life expectancy. Monte Carlo simulations and the delta method were used to estimate confidence intervals for life table estimates and Arriaga’s decomposition results, respectively. The estimated life expectancy at birth has declined by 1.26 years (95% CI: [0.95, 1.57]) from November 1, 2021, to October 31, 2022 to November 1, 2022, to October 31, 2023. Arriaga’s decomposition results indicate that the decline in life expectancy at birth is mainly driven by the increase in mortality after age 75, which accounts for 83% of the total reduction.

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 Presented in Session 102. Flash Session Seasonal, Climate- and COVID-19-Related Mortality