Understanding the Impact and Aftermath of COVID-19 on Global Migration

Ruth Neville , UCL
Francisco Rowe, University of Liverpool
Vestin Hategekimana, Universoty of Geneva

The COVID-19 pandemic caused extensive disruption to international migration, halting cross-border mobility and reshaping global migration flows. While the immediate contraction of flows in 2020-2021 is well documented, less is known about how and where migration recovered, and which structural factors shaped diverging recovery trajectories. The paper investigates the reconfiguration of international migration flows, during, and after the pandemic (January 2019 – December 2022) using Meta’s International Migration Flows dataset – a large-scale digital trace source capturing monthly movements between 181 countries. We develop a Migration Recovery Index (MRI) that measures four dimensions of recovery after the pandemic-induced collapse: speed, duration, persistence, and volatility. Using a multilevel model with varying intercepts for origin and destination countries, we identify key drivers of recovery across migration corridors. Results show that migration recovery was highly uneven: corridors linking geographically proximate and institutionally connected countries (e.g. those with shared language or EU membership) exhibited faster and more stable recovery, while long-distance and more restrictive destinations lagged behind. Stronger governance in origin countries and larger destination populations was also associated with higher recovery scores. By integrating digital trace data, systems-based analysis, and resilience perspectives, this research provides new insights into how global mobility systems adapt to crises. Ongoing work will extend the analysis through dynamic clustering of recovery trajectories, contributing to broader debates on migration resilience and adaptation under new global realities shaped by pandemics, conflicts, and inequality.

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 Presented in Session 48. International Migration and Global Challenges