Trying under Pressure: Economic Downturns and Age-Specific Fertility Behavior

Marcus Immonen Hagley
Eva Beaujouan, University of Vienna, Wittgenstein Centre

Fertility responses to economic downturns vary by age and parity, but birth-based studies conflate behavior with biological constraints. This study examines how the 2008–2009 recession in Germany affected the onset of trying to conceive, using 13 waves of the German Pairfam panel (2008–2021). We focus on women who were not trying at baseline and estimate individual fixed-effects models by age and parity. Results show a decline of about four percentage points in trying among younger childless women (<35) during the recession. In contrast, women with one child show no significant change, and older childless women (35+) maintain or slightly increase trying, consistent with biological time pressure. Older women with one child show no increase. These findings reveal that recession effects are concentrated among younger childless women, while planning composition and reproductive timing moderate responses at higher parity. Studying trying behavior clarifies behavioral adjustments that birth data obscure.

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 Presented in Session P2. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 2