Growing up Unequal: Family Background and the Formation of Fertility Expectations in the United States

Martin Gädecke , University of Oxford, Nuffield College, Department of Sociology
Ana Karalashvili, Humboldt University Berlin

Young adults’ fertility expectations are key indicators of demographic change. Although family influences on fertility aspirations are well documented, less is known about how these intergenerational processes vary across social contexts. Guided by an intersectional framework, this study examines role modeling as a mechanism of intergenerational transmission of fertility expectations, situating it within systems of economic and family-structure inequality. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and its Children and Young Adults (CYA) supplement (N = 13,944), we link mothers born between 1957 and 1964 to their children born between 1972 and 2001. We test whether children from larger families expect to have more children themselves and how this relationship is conditioned by childhood economic resources, family structure, and the intersection of gender and race. Results show that family size during upbringing is positively associated with fertility expectations among White women and men. In contrast, this association is less pronounced among Black and Hispanic individuals. For Black women, the pattern even reverses: those raised in larger families tend to expect fewer children themselves. Across all groups, the link between family size and fertility expectations is weaker in low-income households and among young adults who grew up with a single mother or experienced parental separation. Overall, these findings demonstrate that the intergenerational reproduction of fertility norms is stratified by inequality, reflecting how family background shapes fertility expectations.

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 Presented in Session 77. Flash Session Fertility, Economic Conditions and Inequality