Migration, Education, and Origin: Modeling Europe’s Demographic Futures

Dilek Yildiz , International Institute for Applied Systems Anlaysis
Samir KC, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Michaela Potancoková, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Understanding the patterns and composition of international migration to the European Union (EU) is essential for assessing future demographic change and its social and economic implications. This study aims to understand the demographic impacts of different migration scenarios and uses a multidimensional demographic model that projects population disaggregated by age, sex, education, and region of birth—distinguishing among those born in the reporting EU member state, in another EU member state, and outside the EU. Our model builds on the Wittgenstein Centre Global Human Capital projection model and Future Migration Scenarios for Europe Horizon 2020 project's migration projection model. Using recent data from the EU 2021 Population and Housing Census, we initially develop and compare three international migration scenarios: a Medium Migration scenario aligned with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways “Middle of the Road” trajectory; a Zero Migration scenario assuming no cross-border migration; and a Zero Non-EU Immigration scenario that only allows intra-EU mobility. Preliminary results highlight the significance of international migration for maintaining the working-age population and sustaining educational diversity across EU member states. This is an ongoing work and future work includes investigating the impact of (skill and age) selective migration scenarios to the EU.

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 Presented in Session 36. Composition of International Migration