Global Uncertainty, Fertility Intentions and Realization in Norway

Trude Lappegard , University of Oslo
Lars Dommermuth, Statistics Norway
Axel Peter Kristensen, University of Oslo

This study aims to explore the connection between perceived global uncertainty on the one side and fertility intentions as well as their subsequent realization on the other side. . More specifically, we examine whether concerns about global issues—such as climate change, terrorism, economic instability, and political extremism—affect individuals' intentions to have children and to realize these intentions in Norway. The research builds on the premise that globalization and digital technologies have intertwined local and global contexts in life decisions, suggesting that rising global uncertainties can influence personal choices even when local conditions are stable. Using longitudinal data from the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey conducted in 2020 and 2024, this study focuses on men and women aged 20 to 38 who do not yet have children. Participants report their worries about various global challenges, which are categorized into factors like politics, conflicts, climate, and economics. The analytical approach employs linear probability regression models to assess how these perceived uncertainties relate to fertility intentions and whether they predict actual childbearing within three years. By investigating how specific global concerns impact fertility decisions, this research aims to offer insights into shifting reproductive behaviors and the significant decline in fertility rates observed in Norway over the past fifteen years. Ultimately, it provides valuable insights into the interplay between global concerns and individual fertility decision-making.

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 Presented in Session 81. Fertility Intentions in Uncertain Times