Early Intent vs. Reality: What Determines Actual Return Migration Behaviour of Ukrainian Refugees?

Lenore Sauer , Federal Institute for Population Research
Jean Philippe Décieux, University of Bonn

Our contribution aims at analysing the determinants of return migration intentions as well as actual return migration behaviour, focussing on Ukrainian war refugees to Germany who have returned to Ukraine. As of October 2025, almost 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees were registered in Germany, making it one of the most important destination countries within the EU. Understanding how temporary or permanent such migrations are, is important for policy-making in both, the receiving countries and Ukraine. Due to a lack of available data on actual returning behaviour, recent research usually operates with intentions to return as proxy for actual return behaviour to analyse return migration processes. However, relying solely on intentions can be problematic, as they may evolve over time due to individual attributes, changing circumstances, and unexpected life events. The probability-based panel study "BiB/FReDA: Refugees from Ukraine in Germany" offers a unique opportunity to address this research gap. It contains questions on return intentions but also continues to track and survey individuals who have returned to Ukraine. Using random and fixed effects regression models, we examine the determinants of return intentions, the factors influencing actual return behaviour, and whether return intentions serve as reliable predictors of later return migration. By connecting intentions and behaviour longitudinally, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the dynamics and the temporality of forced migration and provides valuable insights for evidence-based policymaking.

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 Presented in Session 87. International Migration Intentions