Income and Fertility in Italian Couples: New Evidence from Longitudinal Tax Data

Carlos Gil , University of Florence
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Raffaele Guetto, University of Florence
Maria Luisa Maitino, IRPET
Letizia Ravagli, IRPET

This study adopts a dyadic approach to examine whether higher-income women experience lower fertility due to opportunity costs and conventional gender norms or whether resource pooling within couples facilitates parenthood. We test the well-established gendered relationship between income and fertility in Italy, a country historically known for its division of family roles along traditional gender lines. Utilising longitudinal tax data (2003–2021; n = 5,384,425 person-years) from Tuscany—an Italian region representing average levels of economic development and gender equality in Europe—we apply discrete-time event-history analyses. Results show that higher earnings for both men and women increase the likelihood of having a first birth, with couples in which both partners are high earners being the most likely to have children and low-income couples being the least likely. These findings challenge traditional sex-specialisation models and support the view that couples’ income pooling is a key factor for parenthood. While the positive income-fertility association remained stable for married couples, it grew stronger among single/cohabitors in the late 2010s, suggesting a link between rising economic barriers to parenthood and income inequality in fertility.

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 Presented in Session 77. Flash Session Fertility, Economic Conditions and Inequality