Employment Security or Family Planning? Employment Transitions and Desired Fertility in South Korea

Younga Kim , Pukyong National University

The desired fertility of young adults is related to their employment status. However, little is known about the effect of employment transitions on desired fertility. Does increased job stability lead to a higher desired number of children? I address how employment transitions between regular employment, non-regular employment, self-employment and non-employment affect the desired fertility of young South Koreans, and how this relationship differs by gender. Using five waves of the Youth Panel, 2016-2020, I apply a two-level random effects model to a sample of young adults aged 20-42 years. Compared to those who maintained regular employment, individuals who transitioned from regular to temporary or daily work were about 2.5 times more likely to express a desire to have children. Similarly, those who shifted from regular employment to unemployment showed an increased intention to have children. Wage earners, whether regular or non-regular employees, desired fewer children than the unemployed. The potential for employment change has a greater impact on young people’s desired fertility than employment stability itself. While having actual children tends to strengthen the desire for more children, marriage tends to reduce the desired number of children due to practical constraints. These findings indicate that young people's desired fertility in South Korea is highly sensitive to employment transitions, life-course changes, and their direction. Beyond merely providing secure jobs, policies should focus on ensuring flexibility in employment transitions, stability in living conditions, and social support systems that sustain family formation even during periods of unemployment.

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 Presented in Session 81. Fertility Intentions in Uncertain Times