Regional Differences in Temperature-Related Mortality Burden in Russia

Mikhail Maksimenko , University of Bologna, University of Florence

Non-optimal temperatures pose significant public health risks, with impacts expected to shift under global climate change. Although global evidence indicates that cold exposure generally imposes a greater health burden than heat, precise estimates remain underexplored in northern countries. In particular, comprehensive studies of the temperature-mortality relationship in Russia have only recently appeared, with limited nationwide evidence for burden of non-optimal temperatures. This study quantifies the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related mortality across Russian regions covering the period from 2004 to 2019. A two-stage analytical approach was used: first, quasi-Poisson time-series models with distributed lags estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations; second, these estimates were pooled via random-effects meta-analysis to derive overall associations and best linear unbiased predictions for refined region-specific estimates. The AF of deaths attributable to cold was 12.17% (95% CI: 9.46–14.74%), while the AF for non-optimal heat was 0.45% (95% CI: 0.24–0.65%). Cold-related mortality predominates across most Russian regions, with heat-related risks concentrated mainly in the south. This pattern largely reflects differences in exposure to various temperature risks. Geographic differences indicate higher cold-related mortality in extreme continental and northeastern areas, while milder maritime climates exhibit lower burden. Russia’s cold-related mortality burden is among the highest globally, while heat-related deaths remain low except during rare extreme events such as the 2010 heatwave. These findings emphasize the need for targeted strategies to address extreme temperature-related health risks.

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 Presented in Session P61. Flash Session Temperature Extremes, Mortality and Reproductive Health