Income and the Transition to Parenthood: How and Why Past Income Matters

Teodora Maksimovic , Pompeu Fabra University
Daniël van Wijk, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

An increasing body of research highlights the importance of past economic and employment circumstances in shaping fertility behaviour. This study contributes to this line of research by focusing on the role of past income. It investigates how both current and past income relate to the transition to parenthood among men and women in the United Kingdom. Moreover, it is the first to examine the pathways through which past income may influence fertility decisions, including partnership status, housing conditions, and financial perceptions. The analyses combine data from the British Household Panel Study (1991–2008) and Understanding Society (2009–2023), focusing on first births and on income levels in the year before conception and during the preceding three years. Preliminary findings indicate that current income increases the likelihood of a first birth for men but decreases it for women once past income is taken into account. For both genders, higher past income is associated with a greater probability of transitioning to parenthood. Having a partner, owning a home, and holding positive financial perceptions all increase the likelihood of first birth and jointly explain approximately 83 percent of the past income effect for men and about 30 percent for women. Future work will test alternative measures of income and assess robustness by varying the period over which past income is measured. Additional mechanisms, such as career stability and job tenure, will also be explored to help explain the remaining effect of past income on fertility.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session 77. Flash Session Fertility, Economic Conditions and Inequality