In the Shadow of War: Fertility Crash in Estonia 2021–2025

Mark Gortfelder , Estonian Demographic Association

The TFR in Estonia stood at 1.61 in 2021. By 2024 it had dropped to 1.18 which is even lower than during the socio-economically harsh 1990s. In 2025 the decline is continuing. The presentation asks to which extent the fertility decline is due to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 and associated anxieties. Theoretically, this article aligns with the literature on how uncertainties determine childbearing. The relevance of the fear of war is heightened by the fact that Estonia borders Russia and has been invaded by Russia numerous times, also in living memory. To study the question, we will use a number of sources. First, monthly birth data is delved into to associate this outcome with the outbreak of war and Russian advances. Second, we use Estonian-specific survey data on the trend of worries and anxieties. Third, we will use the Gender and Generations Survey (GGS) with its two waves conducted in Estonia right before the outbreak of war and during 2024–2025. Both waves included country-specific questions on uncertainties, also in relation to armed conflicts. Therefore, we are able to associate fears of armed conflicts and its change to both fertility intentions as well as actual fertility between the two waves. We conclude that the fear of war is a factor in the recent fertility crash. However, more relevant is high inflation, which is largely also a result of war.

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 Presented in Session 95. Fertility Responses to War and Crisis