Value Change and the New Wave of Fertility Postponement in Western Europe

Oskar Lindström , University of Florence
Raffaele Guetto, University of Florence
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence

Since 2010, Western Europe has experienced a renewed wave of fertility postponement, contributing to declining fertility rates and rising childlessness. Although multiple explanations have been proposed, the role of ideational factors remains underexplored. This study examines whether value change helps explain contemporary fertility postponement, drawing on the framework of the Second Demographic Transition. We apply Schwartz’s Theory of Basic Human Values to investigate trends in Openness-to-Change and Conservation among women of childbearing age, assessing both aggregate changes over time and individual-level associations with having entered parenthood. Results show that these values are strongly associated with individual propensities to enter parenthood; however, their stability over time suggests they do not underlie the recent fertility postponement trend. Moreover, the selective role of values for entry into parenthood appears unchanged. Some regional heterogeneity emerges, with Southern Europe showing value shifts that may contribute to fertility postponement, though their overall influence appears limited. We conclude that contemporary fertility decline is unlikely to be driven by broad shifts in SDT-related values.

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 Presented in Session 15. Fertility: Trends and Patterns