Revisiting the Structural Traps of Ultra-Low Fertility: A Systematic Review of Global Evidence with Special Reference to South Korea

Yoorim Bang , Ewha Womans University
Yejin KIM, Ewha Womans University

Across high-income societies, fertility has fallen to unprecedented levels, yet South Korea remains an exceptional case of persistently ultra-low fertility despite decades of pronatalist interventions. This study conducts a systematic review of 67 empirical studies published between 1990 and 2023 to synthesize global evidence on the structural and cultural determinants of fertility decline. Following PRISMA guidelines, five databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, and EBSCOhost) were searched, and findings were analyzed across macro-, meso-, and micro-level factors. The analysis is guided by three theoretical lenses. Gender equity theory explains how women’s high educational attainment combined with unequal domestic roles suppresses fertility intentions. Institutional dualism highlights the effects of labor market segmentation and youth precarity, while cultural-structural embeddedness situates fertility behavior within Confucian familism and education-centered competitiveness. Results show that rising housing costs, economic insecurity among younger cohorts, rigid gender norms, and labor market dualization jointly constrain fertility decisions. Family-friendly policies such as childcare, parental leave, flexible work demonstrate partial effects, but are undermined by structural and cultural inertia. Recent evidence also highlights a temporary fertility dip during the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting heightened economic anxiety and work-life uncertainty. South Korea exemplifies a “policy-structure paradox,” where policy abundance cannot overcome institutional rigidity. By situating South Korea within global patterns, this study argues that fertility recovery requires structural transformation, integrating gender equity, labor reforms, and housing stability to achieve sustainable demographic resilience. The findings offer insights for policymakers and scholars seeking to understand the persistence of ultra-low fertility in advanced economies.

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 Presented in Session P1. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 1