Health and Union Dissolution after Midlife: A Dyadic Approach

Giammarco Alderotti , University of Florence
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Carlos Gil, University of Florence

This paper investigates the link between health and marital dissolution after midlife, focusing on Germany. While grey divorce is increasingly common across high-income countries, its determinants in Europe remain understudied—particularly the role of health within couples. Building on the Theory of Dyadic Illness Management, we approach illness as a shared experience that can reshape relationship dynamics in later life. We use longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Germany offers a compelling case for this study, combining a rapidly ageing population with family norms situated between Southern and Northern European patterns. We apply event-history models to estimate the risk of divorce among couples aged 50 and over. Preliminary analyses are carried out at the individual level; however, in line with our theoretical framework, we will present couple-level analyses by the time of the conference. Our models control for key socio-demographic factors, and future additional analyses will assess the mediating role of caregiving and economic strain in the health–divorce association. Preliminary results confirm existing finding suggesting a gendered pattern in the health/silver split link: when the woman has poor health the risk of divorce increase, but this does not happen when the man has poor health. We expect that future analyses will suggest that caregiving and economic strain mediate part of the total effect of health on union dissolution risks. This study contributes to understanding how health inequalities intersect with family dynamics in ageing societies.

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 Presented in Session 84. Union Trajectories, Separation and Divorce