Deroutinization of Labor and Second Birth in West Germany: The Moderating Role of Childcare

Honorata Bogusz , University of Warsaw
Anna Matysiak, University of Warsaw
Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School

Technological change and globalization have transformed labor markets in advanced economies, creating a divide between workers engaged in abstract tasks—who are increasingly in demand—and those performing routine tasks, for whom demand has declined. Only a limited number of studies have explored the fertility implications of these long-term structural shifts. This study contributes to the literature by examining the relationship between changing labor demand and second birth rates, while also considering the moderating role of childcare availability. We draw on data from the Employment Survey of the BiBB and the Bundesagentur für Arbeit, which provide detailed information on abstract and routine tasks performed by workers in West Germany. Using these sources, we construct measures of regional abstract and routine task intensities and track how they evolved over time to capture changes in labor demand across regional labor markets. Additionally, we develop occupation-level measures of task intensity and link them to fertility and employment histories derived from a 2 percent random sample of women in the German Pension Fund. Our findings show that women in routine occupations were least likely to have a second child in regions that experienced the sharpest declines in routine employment, compared to those in regions with more stable routine job availability. Women in highly abstract occupations were generally more likely to have a second child than their counterparts in routine jobs, and their likelihood of doing so was negatively linked to the degree of abstract job expansion in their region. Childcare availability did not moderate this relationship.

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 Presented in Session 41. Fertility, Family Policies and Labour Markets