EU Demographic Outlook 2026: Supporting the Mainstreaming of Demographic Considerations in EU Policies

Fabrizio Natale , European Commission Joint Research Centre

The EU has been proactive in addressing demographic challenges posed by declining fertility rates and ageing populations. The EU's Demography Toolbox, released in 2023, provides a mapping of national and EU policies to address these issues. The current Commission has maintained a responsibility for demography, with Commissioner Šuica also responsible for the Mediterranean. This paper demonstrates how analytical efforts in the Commission can support policy coordination by translating population statistics and projections into implications for labour markets, public finances, and social policies. The paper is structured into three sections: describing EU trends and projections, exploring implications for policy areas, and concluding with directions for future policy development. The analysis draws on recent reports and documents from the Commission, including the EU Ageing Report, the Employment and Social Developments in Europe report, the Affordable Housing Plan, and the Intergenerational Fairness Strategy. The paper makes two main scientific contributions: mapping recent policy developments in the EU and showing how demographic evidence is translated into EU policies. In terms of policy, by providing a foundation for future research and policy development, this paper aims to support the mainstreaming of demographic considerations in EU policies.

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 Presented in Session P79. New European National and Subnational Population Projections: Implications for EU Policy Planning